There is a well-documented relationship between resource scarcity and conflict.
Researchers in organisational behaviour have studied it across industries and cultures: when people feel economically threatened, their tolerance for ambiguity narrows, their trust in institutions erodes, and their capacity for collaborative problem-solving diminishes. They move, almost involuntarily, into a more defensive posture. They interpret neutral actions as hostile ones. They make decisions they would not make under normal conditions.
This is not a character flaw. It is a predictable human response to perceived threat.
I’ve been thinking about this as I watch New Zealand navigate the fuel crisis. Not the logistics of it — the tankers, the stock levels, the government briefings — but the human texture of it. The worker who took a second job to cover rising petrol costs and is now exhausted and brittle at work. The employer running the numbers at 11pm wondering how long they can sustain their current wage bill. The manager caught between both, trying to hold a team together while receiving no clear direction from above.
None of these people are in conflict yet. But the conditions for conflict are assembling.
The anatomy of a workplace dispute
Disputes rarely arrive fully formed. They grow from smaller things: a conversation that felt dismissive, a process that didn’t feel fair, a decision that was never properly explained. In twenty-two years of practice across employment advocacy, mediation, and disciplinary representation, I have observed the same pattern more times than I can count. By the time a matter reaches the Employment Relations Authority, the underlying grievance is often many months old. What triggered the formal process was usually not the original wound but the accumulation of smaller ones.
Economic pressure accelerates this dynamic. When people are stressed, they communicate less carefully. Managers skip the conversation they should have because they don’t have an answer yet. Employees read that silence as threat. Trust, which is the invisible infrastructure of any workplace, quietly degrades.
And then something happens. Hours get cut. A restructure is announced. A performance improvement plan appears on the desk. And the employee who might, in calmer times, have engaged with that process openly instead responds as if under attack — because from their perspective, they have been building a case for months. The employer, baffled by the intensity of the response, digs in.
By this point, the dispute has a life of its own.
What the research tells us about early intervention
The international literature on workplace dispute resolution is consistent on one point: early intervention produces better outcomes for all parties, at substantially lower cost, than litigation. This is not a surprising finding. It is, however, persistently ignored.
In New Zealand, the Employment Relations Act 2000 was built on a philosophy of good faith — an obligation not just to comply with process but to be active and constructive in maintaining a productive relationship. The good faith provisions are not merely procedural requirements. They reflect a legislative view that employment is a relational matter, not just a transactional one, and that the health of that relationship has value worth protecting.
Mediation is available at any stage of an employment dispute, whether through MBIE’s free mediation service or through private practitioners. It is most effective when used early — before positions have hardened and before the parties have spent money and credibility on formal processes. A skilled mediator does not decide who is right. They create the conditions in which the parties can find their own resolution — one more likely to be durable, and more likely to preserve what remains of the relationship, than any determination a tribunal could impose.
And yet most people arrive at mediation late. They arrive after the grievance has been filed, after lawyers have been engaged, after the relationship has been publicly characterised in adversarial terms. They arrive having already decided that the other party is acting in bad faith, which makes genuine resolution significantly harder to reach.
What the fuel crisis changes — and what it doesn’t
I want to be precise here, because there is a risk of overstating the case.
The fuel crisis is, at present, a price event. New Zealand is at Alert Level 1. Supply is stable. This may not escalate to the rationing scenario that has been publicly modelled, and I genuinely hope it doesn’t.
But economic pressure is already real. Fuel costs are up 40 to 50 cents a litre. Transport-dependent businesses are recalculating their margins. Employees who commute long distances are making different decisions about where they can afford to work. These pressures exist regardless of whether formal rationing is ever triggered.
And here is what the fuel crisis doesn’t change: the Employment Relations Act still applies. Good faith obligations still apply. Section 103A — the test for justified action by an employer — still applies. The question of what a fair and reasonable employer could have done in all the circumstances remains the standard, regardless of what is happening in commodity markets.
What changes is the context in which decisions are made, and the emotional register in which they land.
A redundancy process conducted poorly during a period of calm is unfortunate. The same process conducted poorly while the affected employee is already financially stretched and frightened sits differently in the body. The grievance that results is prosecuted with more intensity. The hearing, if it gets that far, is more polarised. The settlement, when it eventually comes, is more expensive and more bitter.
This is the cost of not attending to the relational dimension of employment during periods of pressure.
The practitioner’s perspective
Twenty-two years of practice teaches you to recognise the early signs. Not the formal ones — the notices of investigation, the proposed outcome letters, the grievance filings — but the quieter signals that precede them. The email tone that shifts. The meeting that didn’t happen. The conversation that was cut short.
The matters that take longest and cost most are almost never the ones where something egregiously wrong occurred. They are the ones where something small and manageable was allowed to grow in the absence of a good-faith conversation.
A 90-minute mediation in March is sometimes the difference between a resolved employment relationship and a six-month formal process in August.
Mediation doesn’t resolve everything, and not all disputes can or should be avoided. Some conduct is serious and requires formal process. Some relationships are genuinely beyond repair. But the question worth asking — as an employer, as an employee, as a manager — is whether you have genuinely exhausted the relational options before reaching for the formal ones. In a period of economic stress, that question is more important than usual. The instinct under pressure is to manage risk by tightening process. But tight process without good faith is not risk management. It is conflict deferred.
A note on migrant workers
One dimension of workplace conflict during economic disruption that receives insufficient attention is the position of migrant workers.
Employees on work visas exist in a structurally vulnerable position during any period of workforce change. Their immigration status is tied to their employment. Material changes to their role, hours, or remuneration — even those made in good faith as part of a genuine restructure — carry immigration consequences that most employers do not fully understand and most employees cannot easily navigate.
This creates conditions for both exploitation and inadvertent harm. The migrant worker who doesn’t raise a concern because they fear visa consequences is a worker whose ability to engage in good faith with their employer is being compromised by structural inequality. The employer who makes workforce changes without considering immigration implications may be creating compliance exposure in two regulatory domains simultaneously.
Early specialist advice — at the point where changes are being contemplated rather than after they have been implemented — is the only reliable way to manage this risk.
What I’d invite you to consider
If you are an employer: the next 60 days will test your workplace relationships. Not because catastrophe is certain, but because pressure reveals what is already there. Now is a good time to ask whether your team’s trust in your processes is the kind that holds under strain.
If you are an employee: if something is happening at work that doesn’t feel right, get advice early. Not to escalate, but to understand your position before a situation develops in a direction that becomes harder to manage.
If you are a HR professional or manager sitting between both: consider whether your organisation has genuinely invested in its dispute resolution capability — or whether it has substituted policy documents for the harder work of relational health.
The fuel crisis will pass. Workplace relationships will remain.